Analysis

“Connecting the dots” or more precisely - failure to “connect the dots” is an often used colloquialism heard after a tragic event just occurred.  9-11, Richard Reid - aka the “shoe bomber”, Westgate shopping mall attack in Nairobi, Kenya and the Boston marathon bombing are a few of the horrific attacks that caused post incidence and retrospective examination of intelligence gaps and failures.   

The systemic breakdown to analyze lead information (dots) and the inability to piece together data (intelligence) for actionable intelligence is not the result of a lack of information/intelligence, but how the information or data is being analyzed.  Open source data or intelligence (OSINT) generates an incomprehensible amount of information daily, much of which becomes history soon after it is collected.  People or groups of people - good and bad communicate with each other and often do so via open source channels.  Even though criminal communications are likely disguised or coded from their true evil intent, it is probable that within this vast array of information being shared lies the answer to successfully “connect the dots” for actionable targeting; providing the intelligence is analyzed correctly.  The above cited tragedies such as 9-11 proved in part that the analytical methods utilized failed. 

TOSS has advanced and implemented an innovative scientific method that codes and categorizes open-source, qualitative textual data.  Our original purpose in designing this platform was to potentially reveal emerging threats targeting United States interests.  While our concentration lies on open-source intelligence, it can be utilized seamlessly in a classified environment. The analysis we perform is also “grounded” to the source of the data, thereby removing any form of opinion, bias, or speculation. This will ensure that policymakers can make informed decisions because the analysis adheres to the “canons of good science.”

TOSS believes that two critical elements must be present in determining the quality and rigor of the analytical process.  First, the researcher or analyst must have a thorough understanding of the scientific methods involved in qualitative inquiry.  Second, the personal qualities of the researcher or analyst (which the scientific community has labeled theoretical sensitivity), must be operationally driven so that context of the data is thoroughly understood.

Our staff meets both of these requisites and is comprised of former FBI Supervisory Special Agents, intelligence community officers, and members of the military’s most elite Special Operations Command, many of whom hold advanced degrees. Our researchers have experienced many of the situational and operational factors that come into play when investigating terrorism and have extensive training in the analysis of qualitative data.  The qualifications and “theoretical sensitivity” of our researchers give meaning to data and the ability to separate the relevant from the non-relevant, which is a significant advantage when attempting to conduct predictive analysis.

We are also proud to have established teams among our staff, matching operational expertise with analytical ability and understand the importance of channeling these two distinct talents into a unified, cohesive and integrated capability. While others, particularly those in government continue to segregate operations from analysis, analysis from collection; TOSS assimilates operational and analytical expertise into a unified objective, which brings both credibility and validity to our analytical process.

TOSS brings this capability not only to the government sector, but to the corporate world.  As corporations become more vulnerable to multiple security and threat exposure, TOSS will provide actionable intelligence to leaders so informed decisions can be made with potential threats mitigated and removed. 

Contact TOSS for further information and inquires.  

Maritime Training and Support

The maritime environment provides one of the greatest forges to determine the metal of a man.

The sea is unforgiving.                                                                                                                                  Commando Hubert

The maritime environment is harsh and unforgiving.  It produces men that are hardened and shaped into extraordinary operators.  Operating in blue and brown water requires extraordinary preparation, precision and fortitude to continuously succeed during missions.  TOSS ensures all of our Maritime Training and Support takes this into account.  Our Maritime focus includes: vessels, subject matter expertise on vessels, ports, harbors, marinas, inlets, coastal and open waterways.

TOSS Maritime Training and Support provides comprehensive Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) that are used to conduct operations in areas up to high-threat, while operating as part of a small unit or a large operation. TOSS experts are drawn from all sectors of the maritime environment.  TOSS expertise comes from Federal, State, and local Law Enforcement, Harbor Law Enforcement, the Intelligence Community; Special Operations; and US Customs and Border Protection. 

TOSS Maritime Training and Support is hands-on and is based on real-world operational experience and proven techniques.  At TOSS, our core focus is to provide US interagency training and support with regional orientation for indirect, asymmetric, unconventional, clandestine, covert, and low-visibility operations working with indigenous forces or unilaterally.  We have a suite of maritime training and support that starts with basic skill-sets then extends all the way to a realistic, tailorable Mission Readiness Exercise (MRX) that will test a unit’s mission essential tasks.  TOSS incorporates all of the intelligence disciplines operators will utilize while supporting overseas operations.

There are no “do-overs” when operators are deployed.  TOSS takes its training responsibilities seriously and exceeds the training objectives within the defense, law enforcement, inter-agency, and intelligence communities to ensure the training experience adequately prepares operators for actual operations.  TOSS is the serious choice.

Contact Frank Bosia (frank@toss-llc.com) for more information.

Bridging the Intelligence Gap

Many intelligence reports in war are contradictory; even more are false, and most are uncertain.  . . . In short, most intelligence is false.

-Carl von Clausewitz, On War

Anyone who has read Clausewitz is aware of his disdain of intelligence.  The world is full of tactical operators that have prepared for an operation only to find out what they actually face was not accounted for.  By the same token, many operators have successfully conducted operations because they did have a good picture of enemy forces.  Clausewitz’s Napoleonic era conclusions regarding intelligence are certainly open to debate.  But it can’t be argued that the US Intelligence Community has recently made exponential strides and continues to make those strides in the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis.

Analytical Tradecraft is both science and art.  On the “art” side one can fail to discover what is actually happening due to cognitive and perceptual biases of the institution and/or the analyst.  On the “science” side, one can fail to have adequate structured analytical tools and then populate what tools they do have with incorrect assumptions.  TOSS proposes that the systemic breakdown to analyze initial information and the inability to piece together data threads for actionable intelligence is not the result of a lack of information/intelligence, but how the information or data is being analyzed. 

In the US Government paper, A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis (2009) the author recommends to overcome internal biases in analytical tradecraft one must apply more structured analytical techniques:

- Instilling more structure into the intelligence analysis.

- Making analytical arguments more transparent by articulating them and challenging key assumptions.

- Stimulating more creative “out-of-the-box” thinking and examining alternative outcomes, even those with low probability, to see if available data might support these outcomes.

- Identifying indicators of change (or signposts) that can reduce the chances of surprise.

Collection consumes a large portion of the Intelligence Analysis Cycle.  One part of collection that is producing great results is Open Source Intelligence (OSINT).  The challenge is that Open Source data or Intelligence generates an incomprehensible amount of information daily, much of which becomes irrelevant soon after it is collected.  People or groups of people (good and bad) communicate with each other over open source channels.  Even though malicious communications are likely disguised or coded from their true evil intent, it is probable that within this vast array of information being shared lies the answer to successfully “connect the dots” for actionable targeting—if the intelligence is analyzed correctly. 

To meet the OSINT Analysis challenge, TOSS has advanced and implemented an innovative scientific method that codes and categorizes open source, qualitative textual data.  Our original purpose in designing this platform was to potentially reveal emerging threats targeting United States interests.  While our concentration lies on OSINT, it can be utilized seamlessly in a classified environment as well. The analysis we perform is also “grounded” to the source of the data, thereby removing any form of opinion, bias, or speculation. This will ensure that policymakers can make informed decisions because the analysis adheres to the “canons of good science” which are grounded to what is actually occurring.

TOSS brings this capability not only to the government sector, but to the corporate world.  As corporations become more vulnerable to multiple security and threat exposure, TOSS will provide actionable intelligence to leaders so informed decisions can be made with potential threats mitigated and removed. 

Contact Frank Bosia at TOSS for further information and inquires.

frank@toss-llc.com  

TOSS Security Solutions

TOSS Specializes in Security Consulting Services for High-Risk Environments.  TOSS’ Physical and Technical Security Consulting Teams are based on over 150 years of aggregate knowledge and experience conducting multi-facility security risk assessments, developing security policies and procedures, training security personnel, and providing highly specialized security details in high-risk environments around the globe.  Included among TOSS’ customers are domestic and international businesses and organizations; and the U.S. Government's elite Military and Law Enforcement agencies.  In fact, TOSS was founded in 2004 in response to a request by a Department of Defense (DOD) Military element for highly specialized security training for operations in austere environments – training that could only be delivered by the experts at TOSS.

TOSS possesses expertise in a number of significant and inter-related Security competencies, called the TOSS Core Competencies, which include Physical Security, Operational Security, High Threat Operations, Cyber, Low Visibility Operations, Undercover Operations, Tradecraft, Physical and Technical Surveillance, Surveillance Detection (SD), Counter-Surveillance (CS), Technical Surveillance Countermeasures, Surreptitious Entry, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and analysis, Human Intelligence Operations, Signal/Electronic Exploitations, and many other related Security Specialties. 

Members of the TOSS Team are well-respected Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) in all aspects of high-risk Physical Security, including buildings, complexes, seaports, transportation and shipping (land, sea and air), executive security training, and special events.  Together, we have conducted or approved over 16,000 security risk assessments, and implemented security policies and procedures in the most challenging environments.  Included among our qualifications and experience are:  Threat and Vulnerability Assessments and Access Control for several of the most prominent buildings in the U.S., conducting oil refinery and power company risk surveys to assess compliance with “security of critical infrastructure” regulations; serving as Director of Security for over 7000 U.S. Government-owned facilities around the world; and supervising security for special events, such as the 2009 FIFA World Cup in Nigeria and the 1996 and 2002 Olympics.  TOSS’ Physical Security personnel have extensive experience working in permissive to non-permissive environs and in war zones as U.S. Special Operations Forces personnel, Strategic and Tactical Leaders of FBI Special Operations in matters of national safety, and performing risk assessments and providing protection for U.S. Presidents and other Heads of State.

We understand and have expertise in each specific element of both offensive and defensive Physical Security and Risk Assessment – because we have worked where others have not. 

Contact us if you are interested in any of these TOSS Security Solutions:

    Threat and Vulnerability Assessment

    Personal Security Assessment And Analysis

    Cyber Security (Individual And Company)

    Corporate Chief Security Officer Support Program

    Red Teaming And Penetration Testing

    Security Policy And Procedure Development And Modification

    Physical Security Training And Support Services

    Corporate Espionage Mitigation

    Active Shooter Training

    Security System Design And Implementation

    Security Best Practices Benchmarking

    Special Event Security Consulting And On-Site Management

    Security Staff Training With Tabletop Exercises

    Security Team Field Exercises And Assessment

    Travel Safety Training Services

    Emergency Planning And Response

    Protective Services

    Geolocation

    Abduction Aversion

    Negotiation/Medevac/Extraction

TOSS Security Solutions: Threat Assessment

Tactical Operations Support Services (TOSS) is operated by former FBI Supervisory Special Agents. During their careers with the FBI, they were all members of the Bureau’s elite Special Operations Branch whose mission focus was on covert operations in support of Criminal and National Security investigations with a collateral responsibility of designing and implementing physical, technical and information security standards for the Bureau.  Their role was expanded to include strategic US assets overseas in response to the World Trade Center attack on 9/11.  TOSS principles also include Special Operations Force operators who provided Force Protection across the threat spectrum for DOD and US assets throughout the world. 

The expanded TOSS team has a broad spectrum of specialists with Federal Law Enforcement, Intelligence, Industrial and Military Operations Backgrounds who provide a comprehensive assessment service to evaluate the current state of an organization’s security and safety landscape, focusing on established policy, procedures, security and safety hardware platforms, and human resource requirements. The TOSS blending of various security disciplines allows us to provide unique solutions.  Based on the TOSS red team experience, assessments are conducted from both an internal and external perspective, ensuring a comprehensive analysis to industry best practices.

The objective of a TOSS security and safety Threat Assessment is to provide the customer with a report that identifies existing vulnerabilities within the reviewed security, safety and IT landscapes and offer specific recommendations to mitigate the risk level to an acceptable level.  TOSS can evaluate your organization’s entire security landscape including, physical security, personnel security, travel security, industrial espionage, internal threats, and cyber threats.  TOSS is expert in providing security solutions due to our people and our proprietary methods.  The overall results for the organization will be a strategic plan, consistent with inherent organizational concerns and specific business needs that prioritize follow-up actions in a high, medium and low priority time line to isolate and mitigate risks, safeguard assets and prevent security breaches.

TOSS will work with you to provide an all-encompassing plan that solves your security needs with the best-value solution.  The Threat Assessment will include:

Phase 1. Immediate Threats: Determine if there are urgent threats and develop immediate steps to mitigate them.

Phase 2. Threat Assessment: A thorough, TOSS proprietary Threat Assessment is completed utilizing all sources of information. 

Phase 3. Define Risk:  Establish the level of risk.

Phase 4. Mitigate: Develop factors to mitigate risk.

Phase 5. Provide security solutions.

Phase 6. Provide continued security solutions as required.